Using valuation multiples to predict stock prices and their relationship to the market value of the stock: An applied study of a sample of stocks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange

Abstract

In light of the importance of stocks, whose investment and trading play a fundamental role in stock market activity, it is therefore necessary to show importance in evaluating and predicting the prices of these stocks in the future. In light of the changes in economic conditions and the difficulty of forecasting, this research dealt with one of the financial methods represented by (valuation multiples) with its six models for forecasting and evaluating stock prices and applying them to real data in the Iraqi Stock Exchange by taking a sample of the banks listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange, which are banks ( Assyria, Baghdad, Iraqi Commercial, Business Gulf, Iraqi Investment, Al-Mansour, Sumer) which are continuing within the market activities by publishing their annual share prices, as the research aimed to determine the accuracy and closeness of the banks’ evaluation of their share prices to the market prices through the use of (valuation multipliers) For the period from (2016-2020) up to the predicted year, which is 2021, and then comparing it with the market price for the year (2021), which can greatly affect investment strategies and market activity. In addition, the relationship between the two values was tested through the nonparametric test, Mann-Whitney, in proportion to the selected sample. In light of this, the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is that some of these banks are valued higher than their market value, and some are equal to or lower than the market value. Which resulted in the fact that there are no significant differences between the real value calculated by valuation multiples and the market value of the stock according to statistical tests.